Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight scenarios for United States's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

98.4

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 95.4 · P50 98.4 · P90 100.7

Baseline

112.6

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 106.0 · P50 112.6 · P90 118.5

Acceleration

142.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 129.2 · P50 142.4 · P90 157.4

Elite Divergence

146.3

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 127.1 · P50 146.3 · P90 164.2

Democratization

116.7

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 109.3 · P50 116.7 · P90 124.0

Open-Source Dominance

125.8

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 115.8 · P50 125.8 · P90 135.1

Regulatory Constriction

93.8

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 91.8 · P50 93.8 · P90 95.6

AGI Emergence

235.4

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 169.7 · P50 235.4 · P90 291.8

Methodology: scenario construction →