Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for United Arab Emirates's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
63.2Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 61.3 · P50 63.2 · P90 64.7
Baseline
73.6Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 69.6 · P50 73.6 · P90 78.1
Acceleration
95.9Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 85.6 · P50 95.9 · P90 107.7
Elite Divergence
87.0Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 78.0 · P50 87.0 · P90 95.4
Democratization
88.5Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 80.5 · P50 88.5 · P90 96.6
Open-Source Dominance
94.7Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 85.3 · P50 94.7 · P90 104.4
Regulatory Constriction
60.5Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 59.0 · P50 60.5 · P90 61.9
AGI Emergence
134.0Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 103.6 · P50 134.0 · P90 162.7
Methodology: scenario construction →