Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Argentina's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
39.1Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 37.5 · P50 39.1 · P90 40.4
Baseline
48.4Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 44.7 · P50 48.4 · P90 52.0
Acceleration
65.6Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 56.6 · P50 65.6 · P90 73.9
Elite Divergence
50.4Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 45.6 · P50 50.4 · P90 55.9
Democratization
68.0Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 59.5 · P50 68.0 · P90 75.9
Open-Source Dominance
72.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 61.5 · P50 72.6 · P90 80.9
Regulatory Constriction
37.6Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 36.5 · P50 37.6 · P90 38.9
AGI Emergence
78.6Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 59.8 · P50 78.6 · P90 96.8
Methodology: scenario construction →