Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Australia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
67.9Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 65.9 · P50 67.9 · P90 69.7
Baseline
79.6Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 75.0 · P50 79.6 · P90 84.1
Acceleration
102.4Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 92.7 · P50 102.4 · P90 113.0
Elite Divergence
94.4Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 84.1 · P50 94.4 · P90 105.3
Democratization
93.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 84.5 · P50 93.2 · P90 100.6
Open-Source Dominance
99.2Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 87.2 · P50 99.2 · P90 108.8
Regulatory Constriction
65.4Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 63.7 · P50 65.4 · P90 66.8
AGI Emergence
148.5Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 112.0 · P50 148.5 · P90 179.6
Methodology: scenario construction →