Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Austria's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
65.3Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 63.4 · P50 65.3 · P90 67.0
Baseline
76.5Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 71.9 · P50 76.5 · P90 80.9
Acceleration
98.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 88.9 · P50 98.8 · P90 109.6
Elite Divergence
90.7Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 81.4 · P50 90.7 · P90 98.9
Democratization
90.7Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 82.5 · P50 90.7 · P90 99.4
Open-Source Dominance
96.4Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 86.9 · P50 96.4 · P90 107.5
Regulatory Constriction
62.7Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 61.0 · P50 62.7 · P90 64.0
AGI Emergence
139.4Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 106.0 · P50 139.4 · P90 169.0
Methodology: scenario construction →