Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Belgium's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
66.4Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 64.3 · P50 66.4 · P90 68.0
Baseline
77.0Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 72.5 · P50 77.0 · P90 81.3
Acceleration
98.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 87.8 · P50 98.8 · P90 110.8
Elite Divergence
91.3Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 81.3 · P50 91.3 · P90 100.3
Democratization
91.1Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 83.1 · P50 91.1 · P90 100.4
Open-Source Dominance
97.1Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 87.0 · P50 97.1 · P90 107.3
Regulatory Constriction
63.8Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 62.4 · P50 63.8 · P90 65.3
AGI Emergence
138.3Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 106.1 · P50 138.3 · P90 174.9
Methodology: scenario construction →