Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Brazil's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
42.8Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 41.3 · P50 42.8 · P90 44.2
Baseline
52.5Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 48.9 · P50 52.5 · P90 56.0
Acceleration
70.7Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 61.7 · P50 70.7 · P90 78.6
Elite Divergence
55.1Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 49.2 · P50 55.1 · P90 60.8
Democratization
73.0Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 64.1 · P50 73.0 · P90 80.4
Open-Source Dominance
76.2Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 65.3 · P50 76.2 · P90 85.8
Regulatory Constriction
41.5Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 40.1 · P50 41.5 · P90 42.7
AGI Emergence
85.9Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 65.6 · P50 85.9 · P90 106.3
Methodology: scenario construction →