Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Canada's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
72.1Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 69.9 · P50 72.1 · P90 74.0
Baseline
83.8Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 78.7 · P50 83.8 · P90 88.3
Acceleration
107.4Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 96.8 · P50 107.4 · P90 118.7
Elite Divergence
104.1Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 91.9 · P50 104.1 · P90 115.0
Democratization
94.8Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 87.1 · P50 94.8 · P90 102.2
Open-Source Dominance
100.2Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 91.0 · P50 100.2 · P90 111.2
Regulatory Constriction
69.1Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 67.6 · P50 69.1 · P90 70.5
AGI Emergence
161.3Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 123.9 · P50 161.3 · P90 203.0
Methodology: scenario construction →