Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Switzerland's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
75.3Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 72.8 · P50 75.3 · P90 77.1
Baseline
86.9Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 81.7 · P50 86.9 · P90 91.5
Acceleration
111.6Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 100.5 · P50 111.6 · P90 122.4
Elite Divergence
111.2Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 98.2 · P50 111.2 · P90 123.0
Democratization
93.8Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 86.9 · P50 93.8 · P90 100.3
Open-Source Dominance
100.4Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 91.1 · P50 100.4 · P90 109.0
Regulatory Constriction
71.9Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 70.3 · P50 71.9 · P90 73.4
AGI Emergence
175.6Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 130.6 · P50 175.6 · P90 216.5
Methodology: scenario construction →