Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for China's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
77.1Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 74.4 · P50 77.1 · P90 78.9
Baseline
89.7Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 84.1 · P50 89.7 · P90 95.0
Acceleration
117.9Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 105.4 · P50 117.9 · P90 129.2
Elite Divergence
116.7Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 103.7 · P50 116.7 · P90 132.0
Democratization
97.5Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 89.7 · P50 97.5 · P90 104.7
Open-Source Dominance
104.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 95.8 · P50 104.6 · P90 114.2
Regulatory Constriction
73.5Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 71.8 · P50 73.5 · P90 74.8
AGI Emergence
186.1Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 141.0 · P50 186.1 · P90 239.0
Methodology: scenario construction →