Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Colombia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
31.6Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 30.4 · P50 31.6 · P90 32.7
Baseline
40.2Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 36.9 · P50 40.2 · P90 43.3
Acceleration
56.5Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 47.6 · P50 56.5 · P90 63.8
Elite Divergence
39.3Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 35.7 · P50 39.3 · P90 43.5
Democratization
60.7Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 52.2 · P50 60.7 · P90 69.5
Open-Source Dominance
64.1Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 53.2 · P50 64.1 · P90 74.9
Regulatory Constriction
30.6Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 29.4 · P50 30.6 · P90 31.8
AGI Emergence
61.4Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 46.8 · P50 61.4 · P90 76.0
Methodology: scenario construction →