Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Czechia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
56.3Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 54.6 · P50 56.3 · P90 57.9
Baseline
66.5Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 62.5 · P50 66.5 · P90 70.2
Acceleration
86.0Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 75.8 · P50 86.0 · P90 96.1
Elite Divergence
75.0Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 67.4 · P50 75.0 · P90 82.2
Democratization
83.5Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 74.2 · P50 83.5 · P90 91.4
Open-Source Dominance
87.1Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 76.8 · P50 87.1 · P90 97.3
Regulatory Constriction
54.4Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 52.8 · P50 54.4 · P90 55.6
AGI Emergence
115.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 90.9 · P50 115.2 · P90 139.5
Methodology: scenario construction →