Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Germany's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
77.1Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 74.9 · P50 77.1 · P90 79.1
Baseline
88.7Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 83.5 · P50 88.7 · P90 93.5
Acceleration
115.5Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 102.0 · P50 115.5 · P90 125.4
Elite Divergence
115.9Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 104.5 · P50 115.9 · P90 128.3
Democratization
95.4Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 89.2 · P50 95.4 · P90 101.8
Open-Source Dominance
102.8Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 93.4 · P50 102.8 · P90 111.0
Regulatory Constriction
73.4Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 71.7 · P50 73.4 · P90 75.1
AGI Emergence
182.9Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 136.9 · P50 182.9 · P90 223.7
Methodology: scenario construction →