Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Denmark's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
73.0Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 70.9 · P50 73.0 · P90 74.6
Baseline
84.3Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 79.0 · P50 84.3 · P90 89.0
Acceleration
108.7Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 96.9 · P50 108.7 · P90 119.4
Elite Divergence
106.0Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 94.0 · P50 106.0 · P90 117.2
Democratization
93.0Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 86.6 · P50 93.0 · P90 100.1
Open-Source Dominance
99.9Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 90.2 · P50 99.9 · P90 108.1
Regulatory Constriction
69.6Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 68.0 · P50 69.6 · P90 70.9
AGI Emergence
164.7Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 124.3 · P50 164.7 · P90 204.8
Methodology: scenario construction →