Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Egypt's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
26.0Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 24.7 · P50 26.0 · P90 27.3
Baseline
34.7Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 31.3 · P50 34.7 · P90 37.7
Acceleration
50.5Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 42.8 · P50 50.5 · P90 57.0
Elite Divergence
31.7Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 28.3 · P50 31.7 · P90 35.2
Democratization
56.1Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 47.9 · P50 56.1 · P90 64.8
Open-Source Dominance
58.9Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 48.3 · P50 58.9 · P90 69.3
Regulatory Constriction
25.1Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 23.8 · P50 25.1 · P90 26.2
AGI Emergence
50.8Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 39.5 · P50 50.8 · P90 62.8
Methodology: scenario construction →