Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight different futures for Spain out to 2040 — each a 'what if things go this way' line. They're possibilities, not predictions.Eight scenarios for Spain's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.Eight scenario trajectories for Spain's CC to 2040 — each the P50 of a Monte-Carlo bounded-growth model under distinct assumptions about diffusion rate, governance, and concentration. Scenarios, not probabilistic forecasts.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

59.9

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 58.1 · P50 59.9 · P90 61.5

Baseline

70.6

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 65.7 · P50 70.6 · P90 74.7

Acceleration

90.8

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 81.5 · P50 90.8 · P90 100.7

Elite Divergence

80.8

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 72.6 · P50 80.8 · P90 88.7

Democratization

86.7

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 78.4 · P50 86.7 · P90 95.0

Open-Source Dominance

91.4

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 81.2 · P50 91.4 · P90 101.4

Regulatory Constriction

57.8

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 56.1 · P50 57.8 · P90 59.1

AGI Emergence

122.1

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 96.0 · P50 122.1 · P90 156.6

Methodology: scenario construction →