Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Estonia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
62.6Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 60.8 · P50 62.6 · P90 64.2
Baseline
73.5Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 68.4 · P50 73.5 · P90 77.5
Acceleration
94.1Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 84.2 · P50 94.1 · P90 104.2
Elite Divergence
85.4Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 75.3 · P50 85.4 · P90 93.3
Democratization
89.0Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 81.2 · P50 89.0 · P90 96.4
Open-Source Dominance
93.2Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 83.7 · P50 93.2 · P90 103.1
Regulatory Constriction
60.1Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 58.6 · P50 60.1 · P90 61.7
AGI Emergence
131.9Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 100.9 · P50 131.9 · P90 160.4
Methodology: scenario construction →