Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Finland's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
72.2Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 70.2 · P50 72.2 · P90 74.0
Baseline
83.7Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 78.7 · P50 83.7 · P90 88.6
Acceleration
108.9Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 96.2 · P50 108.9 · P90 120.2
Elite Divergence
104.7Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 93.2 · P50 104.7 · P90 116.7
Democratization
94.4Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 86.9 · P50 94.4 · P90 101.7
Open-Source Dominance
100.2Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 90.4 · P50 100.2 · P90 109.2
Regulatory Constriction
69.2Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 67.5 · P50 69.2 · P90 70.4
AGI Emergence
164.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 121.6 · P50 164.2 · P90 203.3
Methodology: scenario construction →