Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for France's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
71.0Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 68.8 · P50 71.0 · P90 72.8
Baseline
82.7Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 77.9 · P50 82.7 · P90 87.3
Acceleration
106.6Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 95.6 · P50 106.6 · P90 117.4
Elite Divergence
101.0Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 89.4 · P50 101.0 · P90 112.9
Democratization
94.6Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 86.4 · P50 94.6 · P90 101.6
Open-Source Dominance
100.5Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 89.4 · P50 100.5 · P90 109.2
Regulatory Constriction
68.2Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 66.6 · P50 68.2 · P90 69.7
AGI Emergence
157.5Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 120.7 · P50 157.5 · P90 192.1
Methodology: scenario construction →