Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for United Kingdom's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
▲
Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
77.7Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 75.4 · P50 77.7 · P90 79.6
Baseline
90.3Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 85.0 · P50 90.3 · P90 95.4
Acceleration
116.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 104.7 · P50 116.8 · P90 129.7
Elite Divergence
118.9Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 104.1 · P50 118.9 · P90 132.0
Democratization
96.5Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 89.1 · P50 96.5 · P90 102.6
Open-Source Dominance
102.9Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 92.6 · P50 102.9 · P90 112.4
Regulatory Constriction
74.1Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 72.4 · P50 74.1 · P90 75.6
AGI Emergence
189.4Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 140.4 · P50 189.4 · P90 237.7
Methodology: scenario construction →