Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Indonesia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
28.8Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 27.4 · P50 28.8 · P90 30.0
Baseline
37.8Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 34.1 · P50 37.8 · P90 41.0
Acceleration
53.7Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 44.9 · P50 53.7 · P90 60.9
Elite Divergence
35.9Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 32.4 · P50 35.9 · P90 39.5
Democratization
59.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 50.7 · P50 59.2 · P90 68.2
Open-Source Dominance
62.0Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 50.7 · P50 62.0 · P90 71.6
Regulatory Constriction
27.8Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 26.6 · P50 27.8 · P90 29.0
AGI Emergence
56.4Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 43.0 · P50 56.4 · P90 70.0
Methodology: scenario construction →