Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for India's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
44.0Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 42.1 · P50 44.0 · P90 45.4
Baseline
54.8Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 50.6 · P50 54.8 · P90 59.2
Acceleration
74.9Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 64.6 · P50 74.9 · P90 85.0
Elite Divergence
59.2Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 52.4 · P50 59.2 · P90 65.7
Democratization
76.6Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 67.0 · P50 76.6 · P90 85.5
Open-Source Dominance
80.9Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 68.4 · P50 80.9 · P90 92.0
Regulatory Constriction
42.2Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 40.6 · P50 42.2 · P90 43.6
AGI Emergence
93.9Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 70.7 · P50 93.9 · P90 114.9
Methodology: scenario construction →