Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Ireland's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
68.2Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 66.2 · P50 68.2 · P90 70.1
Baseline
79.6Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 75.2 · P50 79.6 · P90 84.2
Acceleration
103.5Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 92.0 · P50 103.5 · P90 114.1
Elite Divergence
95.4Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 85.2 · P50 95.4 · P90 106.4
Democratization
93.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 85.0 · P50 93.2 · P90 100.7
Open-Source Dominance
98.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 88.5 · P50 98.6 · P90 109.3
Regulatory Constriction
65.6Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 64.0 · P50 65.6 · P90 66.8
AGI Emergence
150.5Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 113.5 · P50 150.5 · P90 188.0
Methodology: scenario construction →