Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Israel's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
74.0Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 71.2 · P50 74.0 · P90 76.1
Baseline
87.2Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 82.0 · P50 87.2 · P90 92.6
Acceleration
114.7Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 100.0 · P50 114.7 · P90 128.0
Elite Divergence
111.2Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 97.3 · P50 111.2 · P90 125.7
Democratization
99.1Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 90.6 · P50 99.1 · P90 107.4
Open-Source Dominance
106.2Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 95.0 · P50 106.2 · P90 117.2
Regulatory Constriction
70.4Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 68.5 · P50 70.4 · P90 72.1
AGI Emergence
182.1Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 130.0 · P50 182.1 · P90 226.1
Methodology: scenario construction →