Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Italy's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
▲
Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
56.9Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 55.3 · P50 56.9 · P90 58.5
Baseline
67.1Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 63.2 · P50 67.1 · P90 70.6
Acceleration
86.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 77.6 · P50 86.8 · P90 95.0
Elite Divergence
76.5Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 69.5 · P50 76.5 · P90 84.0
Democratization
83.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 74.4 · P50 83.2 · P90 90.6
Open-Source Dominance
87.3Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 77.7 · P50 87.3 · P90 95.3
Regulatory Constriction
54.9Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 53.5 · P50 54.9 · P90 56.1
AGI Emergence
116.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 91.0 · P50 116.2 · P90 141.8
Methodology: scenario construction →