Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Japan's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
69.4Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 67.5 · P50 69.4 · P90 71.2
Baseline
80.5Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 76.1 · P50 80.5 · P90 85.1
Acceleration
102.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 92.4 · P50 102.8 · P90 112.7
Elite Divergence
97.2Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 86.9 · P50 97.2 · P90 108.6
Democratization
92.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 85.3 · P50 92.2 · P90 99.3
Open-Source Dominance
98.1Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 87.8 · P50 98.1 · P90 106.6
Regulatory Constriction
66.7Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 65.0 · P50 66.7 · P90 68.1
AGI Emergence
149.8Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 113.1 · P50 149.8 · P90 187.8
Methodology: scenario construction →