Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Kenya's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
14.9Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 13.7 · P50 14.9 · P90 16.0
Baseline
23.0Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 19.6 · P50 23.0 · P90 26.0
Acceleration
37.0Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 30.2 · P50 37.0 · P90 42.8
Elite Divergence
20.0Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 17.1 · P50 20.0 · P90 22.7
Democratization
44.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 35.3 · P50 44.2 · P90 51.6
Open-Source Dominance
46.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 37.4 · P50 46.6 · P90 56.2
Regulatory Constriction
14.1Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 13.0 · P50 14.1 · P90 15.2
AGI Emergence
37.4Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 27.7 · P50 37.4 · P90 47.9
Methodology: scenario construction →