Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for South Korea's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
82.3Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 80.1 · P50 82.3 · P90 84.4
Baseline
95.3Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 89.5 · P50 95.3 · P90 100.4
Acceleration
122.2Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 109.0 · P50 122.2 · P90 136.1
Elite Divergence
124.5Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 111.2 · P50 124.5 · P90 140.0
Democratization
100.8Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 93.6 · P50 100.8 · P90 107.1
Open-Source Dominance
108.7Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 99.6 · P50 108.7 · P90 117.0
Regulatory Constriction
78.3Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 76.8 · P50 78.3 · P90 79.7
AGI Emergence
199.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 147.1 · P50 199.2 · P90 250.1
Methodology: scenario construction →