Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Mexico's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
▲
Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
35.7Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 34.2 · P50 35.7 · P90 36.8
Baseline
44.8Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 41.3 · P50 44.8 · P90 48.3
Acceleration
61.1Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 53.1 · P50 61.1 · P90 69.2
Elite Divergence
44.6Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 40.4 · P50 44.6 · P90 48.6
Democratization
65.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 56.7 · P50 65.2 · P90 73.4
Open-Source Dominance
69.2Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 59.0 · P50 69.2 · P90 78.9
Regulatory Constriction
34.5Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 33.3 · P50 34.5 · P90 35.7
AGI Emergence
68.9Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 55.0 · P50 68.9 · P90 82.1
Methodology: scenario construction →