Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight scenarios for Malaysia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

48.0

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 46.4 · P50 48.0 · P90 49.4

Baseline

58.3

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 54.7 · P50 58.3 · P90 62.3

Acceleration

77.4

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 66.8 · P50 77.4 · P90 86.2

Elite Divergence

64.2

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 58.1 · P50 64.2 · P90 70.5

Democratization

76.6

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 68.5 · P50 76.6 · P90 84.8

Open-Source Dominance

80.8

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 70.3 · P50 80.8 · P90 91.5

Regulatory Constriction

46.2

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 44.8 · P50 46.2 · P90 47.5

AGI Emergence

99.9

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 77.1 · P50 99.9 · P90 122.5

Methodology: scenario construction →