Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Nigeria's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
11.7Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 10.3 · P50 11.7 · P90 12.7
Baseline
19.4Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 16.3 · P50 19.4 · P90 22.3
Acceleration
33.2Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 26.1 · P50 33.2 · P90 39.3
Elite Divergence
16.0Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 13.2 · P50 16.0 · P90 18.6
Democratization
39.5Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 31.4 · P50 39.5 · P90 47.0
Open-Source Dominance
42.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 32.8 · P50 42.6 · P90 51.8
Regulatory Constriction
10.8Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 9.7 · P50 10.8 · P90 11.9
AGI Emergence
32.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 22.9 · P50 32.2 · P90 42.4
Methodology: scenario construction →