Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Netherlands's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
74.4Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 72.2 · P50 74.4 · P90 76.3
Baseline
85.8Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 80.9 · P50 85.8 · P90 90.6
Acceleration
109.6Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 98.7 · P50 109.6 · P90 121.6
Elite Divergence
109.2Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 96.9 · P50 109.2 · P90 122.8
Democratization
93.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 87.1 · P50 93.2 · P90 100.6
Open-Source Dominance
99.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 91.5 · P50 99.6 · P90 108.3
Regulatory Constriction
71.1Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 69.6 · P50 71.1 · P90 72.5
AGI Emergence
172.1Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 129.8 · P50 172.1 · P90 212.0
Methodology: scenario construction →