Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Norway's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
67.9Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 66.0 · P50 67.9 · P90 69.6
Baseline
78.9Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 74.5 · P50 78.9 · P90 83.5
Acceleration
100.9Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 90.1 · P50 100.9 · P90 110.9
Elite Divergence
95.5Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 85.9 · P50 95.5 · P90 104.8
Democratization
90.7Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 83.4 · P50 90.7 · P90 97.4
Open-Source Dominance
96.0Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 87.0 · P50 96.0 · P90 105.0
Regulatory Constriction
65.4Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 63.8 · P50 65.4 · P90 66.7
AGI Emergence
147.0Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 113.6 · P50 147.0 · P90 181.9
Methodology: scenario construction →