Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for New Zealand's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
61.2Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 59.1 · P50 61.2 · P90 62.8
Baseline
71.9Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 67.5 · P50 71.9 · P90 76.0
Acceleration
92.6Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 82.4 · P50 92.6 · P90 101.9
Elite Divergence
82.6Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 74.5 · P50 82.6 · P90 90.4
Democratization
87.3Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 79.2 · P50 87.3 · P90 95.8
Open-Source Dominance
92.5Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 81.2 · P50 92.5 · P90 102.4
Regulatory Constriction
58.9Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 57.5 · P50 58.9 · P90 60.2
AGI Emergence
127.7Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 97.9 · P50 127.7 · P90 154.7
Methodology: scenario construction →