Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight scenarios for Philippines's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

26.1

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 24.8 · P50 26.1 · P90 27.2

Baseline

34.9

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 31.1 · P50 34.9 · P90 38.0

Acceleration

48.8

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 41.6 · P50 48.8 · P90 56.6

Elite Divergence

32.4

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 29.4 · P50 32.4 · P90 35.2

Democratization

55.2

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 47.0 · P50 55.2 · P90 63.4

Open-Source Dominance

58.5

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 49.3 · P50 58.5 · P90 67.4

Regulatory Constriction

25.2

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 23.9 · P50 25.2 · P90 26.4

AGI Emergence

52.1

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 39.3 · P50 52.1 · P90 63.3

Methodology: scenario construction →