Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Poland's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
53.4Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 51.8 · P50 53.4 · P90 54.8
Baseline
63.2Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 59.0 · P50 63.2 · P90 66.8
Acceleration
83.6Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 73.5 · P50 83.6 · P90 92.5
Elite Divergence
70.6Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 63.3 · P50 70.6 · P90 77.5
Democratization
81.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 73.3 · P50 81.2 · P90 88.7
Open-Source Dominance
85.3Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 74.6 · P50 85.3 · P90 95.8
Regulatory Constriction
51.5Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 50.0 · P50 51.5 · P90 52.7
AGI Emergence
107.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 85.0 · P50 107.2 · P90 133.3
Methodology: scenario construction →