Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Portugal's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
55.4Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 53.5 · P50 55.4 · P90 57.0
Baseline
65.6Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 60.8 · P50 65.6 · P90 69.7
Acceleration
85.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 76.6 · P50 85.8 · P90 94.8
Elite Divergence
73.5Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 66.0 · P50 73.5 · P90 80.7
Democratization
82.7Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 74.7 · P50 82.7 · P90 90.8
Open-Source Dominance
87.3Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 77.0 · P50 87.3 · P90 97.3
Regulatory Constriction
53.2Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 51.9 · P50 53.2 · P90 54.6
AGI Emergence
111.3Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 88.5 · P50 111.3 · P90 139.9
Methodology: scenario construction →