Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Russia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
46.7Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 45.0 · P50 46.7 · P90 48.0
Baseline
56.2Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 52.0 · P50 56.2 · P90 60.2
Acceleration
74.0Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 65.2 · P50 74.0 · P90 82.8
Elite Divergence
61.2Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 54.9 · P50 61.2 · P90 66.7
Democratization
74.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 66.2 · P50 74.2 · P90 81.7
Open-Source Dominance
78.3Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 69.9 · P50 78.3 · P90 87.8
Regulatory Constriction
44.9Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 43.4 · P50 44.9 · P90 46.2
AGI Emergence
95.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 74.9 · P50 95.2 · P90 114.5
Methodology: scenario construction →