Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Saudi Arabia's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
50.6Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 48.9 · P50 50.6 · P90 52.1
Baseline
60.5Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 56.2 · P50 60.5 · P90 64.7
Acceleration
79.2Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 69.9 · P50 79.2 · P90 88.7
Elite Divergence
67.0Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 60.8 · P50 67.0 · P90 74.2
Democratization
77.0Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 68.5 · P50 77.0 · P90 85.6
Open-Source Dominance
82.3Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 71.7 · P50 82.3 · P90 91.6
Regulatory Constriction
49.1Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 47.7 · P50 49.1 · P90 50.3
AGI Emergence
103.2Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 81.0 · P50 103.2 · P90 127.3
Methodology: scenario construction →