Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Singapore's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
82.8Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 80.5 · P50 82.8 · P90 85.0
Baseline
95.8Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 90.1 · P50 95.8 · P90 101.0
Acceleration
124.2Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 110.2 · P50 124.2 · P90 137.7
Elite Divergence
126.4Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 113.1 · P50 126.4 · P90 143.0
Democratization
100.8Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 94.1 · P50 100.8 · P90 107.2
Open-Source Dominance
108.4Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 98.7 · P50 108.4 · P90 118.2
Regulatory Constriction
78.9Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 77.1 · P50 78.9 · P90 80.2
AGI Emergence
197.0Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 148.2 · P50 197.0 · P90 248.9
Methodology: scenario construction →