Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight scenarios for Sweden's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

74.3

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 72.1 · P50 74.3 · P90 76.2

Baseline

86.3

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 80.8 · P50 86.3 · P90 91.3

Acceleration

112.1

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 99.5 · P50 112.1 · P90 123.1

Elite Divergence

108.8

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 95.1 · P50 108.8 · P90 122.4

Democratization

95.4

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 87.8 · P50 95.4 · P90 102.4

Open-Source Dominance

101.2

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 91.6 · P50 101.2 · P90 111.7

Regulatory Constriction

71.2

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 69.3 · P50 71.2 · P90 72.5

AGI Emergence

174.2

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 133.5 · P50 174.2 · P90 217.8

Methodology: scenario construction →