Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Thailand's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
38.7Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 37.4 · P50 38.7 · P90 40.0
Baseline
48.0Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 43.7 · P50 48.0 · P90 51.8
Acceleration
64.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 56.5 · P50 64.8 · P90 73.8
Elite Divergence
49.8Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 44.7 · P50 49.8 · P90 55.0
Democratization
67.9Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 60.6 · P50 67.9 · P90 77.1
Open-Source Dominance
70.3Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 59.9 · P50 70.3 · P90 82.5
Regulatory Constriction
37.3Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 35.9 · P50 37.3 · P90 38.6
AGI Emergence
75.7Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 59.9 · P50 75.7 · P90 94.7
Methodology: scenario construction →