Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Turkey's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
44.2Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 42.5 · P50 44.2 · P90 45.5
Baseline
53.9Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 49.5 · P50 53.9 · P90 57.4
Acceleration
71.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 62.5 · P50 71.8 · P90 80.2
Elite Divergence
57.9Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 52.2 · P50 57.9 · P90 63.6
Democratization
72.7Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 64.5 · P50 72.7 · P90 80.0
Open-Source Dominance
75.9Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 65.3 · P50 75.9 · P90 84.7
Regulatory Constriction
42.4Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 41.1 · P50 42.4 · P90 43.7
AGI Emergence
88.4Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 65.7 · P50 88.4 · P90 111.5
Methodology: scenario construction →