Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Taiwan's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
71.8Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 69.4 · P50 71.8 · P90 73.5
Baseline
83.6Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 78.4 · P50 83.6 · P90 88.5
Acceleration
108.4Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 95.4 · P50 108.4 · P90 120.2
Elite Divergence
103.5Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 91.4 · P50 103.5 · P90 115.9
Democratization
95.5Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 87.8 · P50 95.5 · P90 103.8
Open-Source Dominance
101.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 91.5 · P50 101.6 · P90 111.9
Regulatory Constriction
68.7Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 67.0 · P50 68.7 · P90 70.0
AGI Emergence
160.6Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 123.2 · P50 160.6 · P90 197.5
Methodology: scenario construction →