Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Ukraine's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
▲
Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
37.3Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 35.8 · P50 37.3 · P90 38.5
Baseline
46.5Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 42.8 · P50 46.5 · P90 50.1
Acceleration
63.6Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 55.2 · P50 63.6 · P90 71.5
Elite Divergence
47.5Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 42.6 · P50 47.5 · P90 52.5
Democratization
67.8Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 57.6 · P50 67.8 · P90 74.7
Open-Source Dominance
69.2Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 58.6 · P50 69.2 · P90 80.1
Regulatory Constriction
35.9Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 34.5 · P50 35.9 · P90 37.2
AGI Emergence
73.0Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 57.0 · P50 73.0 · P90 90.1
Methodology: scenario construction →