Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for United States's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
97.7Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 95.0 · P50 97.7 · P90 100.1
Baseline
111.2Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 104.7 · P50 111.2 · P90 116.8
Acceleration
142.8Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 126.3 · P50 142.8 · P90 157.1
Elite Divergence
145.8Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 127.4 · P50 145.8 · P90 163.4
Democratization
116.2Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 109.5 · P50 116.2 · P90 123.5
Open-Source Dominance
124.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 113.8 · P50 124.6 · P90 133.9
Regulatory Constriction
93.2Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 91.3 · P50 93.2 · P90 94.9
AGI Emergence
238.6Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 178.6 · P50 238.6 · P90 291.9
Methodology: scenario construction →