Scenario Explorer
Eight scenarios for Vietnam's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.
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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.
CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)
ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence
Conservative
35.7Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.
2040: P10 34.3 · P50 35.7 · P90 37.0
Baseline
44.5Current trajectories continue at observed rates.
2040: P10 40.9 · P50 44.5 · P90 47.9
Acceleration
61.9Capability and adoption compound faster than today.
2040: P10 53.1 · P50 61.9 · P90 69.1
Elite Divergence
45.1Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.
2040: P10 40.9 · P50 45.1 · P90 49.8
Democratization
64.6Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.
2040: P10 56.2 · P50 64.6 · P90 73.8
Open-Source Dominance
68.6Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.
2040: P10 58.1 · P50 68.6 · P90 78.1
Regulatory Constriction
34.5Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.
2040: P10 33.2 · P50 34.5 · P90 35.7
AGI Emergence
68.9Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.
2040: P10 54.9 · P50 68.9 · P90 84.7
Methodology: scenario construction →