Overview / Scenarios

Scenario Explorer

Eight scenarios for South Africa's Cognitive Coefficient to 2040 — each the median (P50) path under different assumptions about diffusion, governance, and concentration.

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Every line is a scenario, not a forecast. CC trajectories use a saturating bounded-growth curve with Monte-Carlo uncertainty bands (occupation projections use Bass diffusion). We never claim a single future will occur.

CC trajectories — all scenarios (P50)

ConservativeBaselineAccelerationElite DivergenceDemocratizationOpen-Source DominanceRegulatory ConstrictionAGI Emergence

Conservative

31.7

Slow diffusion, constrained compute, cautious adoption.

2040: P10 30.3 · P50 31.7 · P90 33.0

Baseline

40.7

Current trajectories continue at observed rates.

2040: P10 36.9 · P50 40.7 · P90 44.1

Acceleration

56.8

Capability and adoption compound faster than today.

2040: P10 50.1 · P50 56.8 · P90 65.2

Elite Divergence

39.4

Frontier pulls away; laggards stall. Inequality widens.

2040: P10 35.6 · P50 39.4 · P90 43.6

Democratization

62.2

Access broadens; catch-up dominates. Inequality narrows.

2040: P10 53.6 · P50 62.2 · P90 70.7

Open-Source Dominance

65.2

Open models + cheap compute broaden the base rapidly.

2040: P10 54.3 · P50 65.2 · P90 75.7

Regulatory Constriction

30.6

Tight governance slows diffusion across the board.

2040: P10 29.1 · P50 30.6 · P90 31.8

AGI Emergence

62.5

Highly capable autonomous systems; large, uncertain divergence.

2040: P10 48.0 · P50 62.5 · P90 76.2

Methodology: scenario construction →