Portugal
Falling behindEuropeHigh income
Power #37 / 48Per-capita #28
Cognitive Power
23.2
of 100 · #37
CPI
23.2
CC
48.5
CDI
0.494
AIR
41.5
AIX
29.5
CRI
40.8
CM
37.9
CV
3.2%
Primary · absolute lens
Cognitive Power
23.2 · #37/48
Total national capacity — AI capital, compute, models & robotics. Strongest in researchers (total), research output (total), economic mass.
Per-capita lens
Cognitive Coefficient
48.5 · #28/48
How deep infrastructure runs per person — rewards intensity, like GDP-per-capita or the HDI.
CC projection to 2040 — Baseline
All 8 scenarios →Monte-Carlo band (P10–P90) around the median path. Dashed = illustrative historical reconstruction.
Median (P50)P10–P90 bandReconstruction
Pillar profile
Insight engine
Portugal ranks #28 of 48 on the Cognitive Coefficient (48.5/100), with a trajectory classified as Falling behind relative to the frontier. Its strongest pillars are data, education; the binding constraints are compute, ai adoption.
Risks
- Low cognitive resilience: heavy reliance on externally-controlled frontier infrastructure.
- Relative position is eroding — growth pace trails the frontier, widening the gap.
Opportunities
- Largest headroom in Compute (20.9/100) — targeted investment compounds fastest here.
- Largest headroom in AI Adoption (25.3/100) — targeted investment compounds fastest here.
Recommended actions
- Prioritise the weakest pillar (Compute) to lift the geometric-mean development index (CDI).
- Convert access into utilization: workforce AI-skilling and agentic-workflow adoption.
- Broaden the base (education + data governance) to raise resilience and reduce concentration risk.
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These are model outputs and scenarios, not forecasts of actual outcomes. This platform measures access to, utilization of, and leverage from cognitive infrastructure — not intelligence. No causality or certainty is claimed.