Nigeria
Falling behindSub-Saharan AfricaLower-middle income
Power #46 / 48Per-capita #48
Cognitive Power
9.9
of 100 · #46
CPI
9.9
CC
7.1
CDI
0.065
AIR
6.2
AIX
5.6
CRI
6.3
CM
9.2
CV
2.4%
Primary · absolute lens
Cognitive Power
9.9 · #46/48
Total national capacity — AI capital, compute, models & robotics. Strongest in economic mass, research output (total), patents (total).
Per-capita lens
Cognitive Coefficient
7.1 · #48/48
How deep infrastructure runs per person — rewards intensity, like GDP-per-capita or the HDI.
CC projection to 2040 — Baseline
All 8 scenarios →Monte-Carlo band (P10–P90) around the median path. Dashed = illustrative historical reconstruction.
Median (P50)P10–P90 bandReconstruction
Pillar profile
Insight engine
Nigeria ranks #48 of 48 on the Cognitive Coefficient (7.1/100), with a trajectory classified as Falling behind relative to the frontier. Its strongest pillars are education, compute; the binding constraints are data, innovation.
Risks
- Low cognitive resilience: heavy reliance on externally-controlled frontier infrastructure.
- Relative position is eroding — growth pace trails the frontier, widening the gap.
Opportunities
- Largest headroom in Data (5.0/100) — targeted investment compounds fastest here.
- Largest headroom in Innovation (5.1/100) — targeted investment compounds fastest here.
Recommended actions
- Prioritise the weakest pillar (Data) to lift the geometric-mean development index (CDI).
- Convert access into utilization: workforce AI-skilling and agentic-workflow adoption.
- Broaden the base (education + data governance) to raise resilience and reduce concentration risk.
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These are model outputs and scenarios, not forecasts of actual outcomes. This platform measures access to, utilization of, and leverage from cognitive infrastructure — not intelligence. No causality or certainty is claimed.